There’s been much speculation over whether or not 2009 will see an increase in U.S. online retail sales. While early indications showed that e-commerce was up in Q1 and thus, likely to be up for the full year, analysts at eMarketer now forecast that online sales will be virtually flat in ’09 (before rebounding to double-digit growth from 2011 to 2013). This contrasts with predictions from Forrester, which previously stated they expect total U.S. online sales to increase 11 percent to $156.1 billion in 2009.

Regardless of whether these predictions turn out to be true or not, eMarketer’s Jeffrey Grau certainly makes the right point when he says “the current economic upheaval has weakened many traditional retailers, putting consumers’ wallets up for grabs…online retailers that can fill the void with superior customer service, rich product information and greater shopping conveniences have a chance to win new customers for life.” And the latest study from Forrester and Shop.org shows that e-tailers are taking this seriously. On Tuesday, the AP reported that about 70 percent of the retailers surveyed in that study are spending as much or more on Web operations this year than last, with many exploring social media tools as an added way to influence consumers.

eMarketer’s Grau notes: “Smart online retailers will take advantage of [consumers’] new behavior—and information needs. The new online consumer is independent and less likely to trust recommendations of a salesperson or be swayed by the emotional appeal of a TV ad.” In fact, many of ATG’s customers are looking to user-generated content such as reviews and blogs to play a critical role in driving branding, customer loyalty, and overtly influencing merchandising.

So the natural question of course is: what will win them over? Are these retailers making the right move by investing in the Web?

Sure, maybe we’re a little biased here, but think about it: no matter how much the economy improves in the near future and when the retail industry as a whole bounces back, consumer habits and expectations will have already shifted. There’s no doubt the Web will play a more important role than ever before. The companies that recognize this now are the ones who will continue to lead the pack. Sites need to differentiate themselves and better serve their customers with dynamic, personalized experiences if they expect to earn their share of consumer spending now and in the future. Some are experimenting by adding multimedia content and live chat to their Facebook pages or offering special deals and promotions via Twitter updates. Many are adding technologies like click to call to their sites, so they don’t miss out on opportunities to engage customers directly and help them complete transactions. Others are adding automated, predictive recommendations tools that serve up more relevant products to visitors wherever they shop online – on the Web store, iPhone appstore, third-party sites, or in-store kiosk applications. And in general, more businesses are realizing there are ways to incorporate personalization throughout a Web site, from introducing targeted cross-sells and up-sells at checkout, to leveraging customer history, referring appropriate sites, adwords used, Google search terms employed, or banner ads clicked, to serve up dynamic homepages that will suit the specific consumer’s needs.

The 70% of retailers who are maintaining their commitment to e-commerce this year (or better still, bolstering it) are doing exactly what they should be: exploring ways to make a bigger, better footprint on the Web and across channels by interacting with customers in ways that count. Those are the brands that will thrive.